However in life , we all need to play the cards we are dealt , one at a time. Some of time it may that we ourselves are allowed to pick or deal those exact cards. Because these are the only cards that we will get , at that time and moment. any alternatives that are available seem less attractive. We can only deal with , and appreciate what cards we get. The Fed is now trapped between a rock and a hard place of being tempted to raise interest rates to buoy the U.S. dollar currency - making it more attractive to income seekers and induce an inflow of dollars while stemming the outflow. However this would more than worsen and sharpen the real estate developments at present - with somewhat of a fear that a real estate crash is in progress or at least potentially in the “works”. Alternatively interest rates could be cut further , inducing interest rate cut that will swell the housing market. Then again with a stabilization of the housing market, many that are being held captive of losing their houses and investments will rise as a groundswell to liquidate their asset or assets. If interest rates are reduced as well, this could result in a free fall crash of the U.S. dollar. In the end , currency trading and currency trading levels ( the basis of Forex trading and Forex systems) all ultimately rest , as in all economics, on concepts and trends of “Supply and Demand”
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Sphere: Related ContentIt is hard to comprehend how it is generally accepted , that in a purportedly free enterprise system , that the government sets interest rates, instead of allowing them to fluctuate freely in the marketplace. Interest rates , the price of capital in a capitalist economic and political system , are much to much important to be controlled by bureaucrats- bureaucracy has become a self serving cancer of its own right in our day and time. Bureaucracy seems to have one major need , of growth of itself and its budgets , regardless of any measurement ( or with little regard) to any measurement of effectiveness, efficiency and overall good for the host. The biggest rule in the system seems to be not what good or bad is accomplished but rather not to do anything to get the petty bureaucrat attention , the limelight or at the very worst sin - to get yourself or your superior in any trouble whatever. Better to lie low and take no action ( to draw attention to yourself, your boss or the department) than to take any actions - which might result in positive changes overall.
However the free market can punish bad behaviour . In the late 1990’s when the Fed decided that the market was so high so as to risk a bear market and recessions, the Fed decided to raise interest rates more than enough to cause that exact bear market and following recession.
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Sphere: Related ContentFor example it has been reported that Sovereign Wealth Funds’ investments have been restricted to the European currencies markets , unless the dollar currency background becomes more “transparent” in nature. In essence the European top economic officials and mandarins have given what is seen as a shot over the bow to the Middle East as well as Asian state run bodies that have been amassing vast assets worth hundreds of billions , if not good fractions of trillions of dollars round the world. These remarks underline the potent and relevant concerns in Germany, France, England Italy and Spain as well as other newly minted European Union countries that some of Europe’s industrial crown jewels may one day be acquired by the funds , whose assets have homed in value , thanks to high energy prices as well as big account surpluses. Open markets may be fine in theory but not “At any and all prices”. It would not be a wise strategic political or geopolitical idea to have strategic as well as prestigious be owned by foreign firms.
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Sphere: Related ContentAfter all how long could Europe tolerate a $ 2 Euro . Even Canadians are now shopping for cheaper goods in the U.S. , reversing a trade pattern of over 30 years. Even though Canada’s biggest market is the United Sates and this is not very good news for Canadian “exporters” , who may very well have not unreasonable fears , along with Europe and its high Euro currency valuations , of a “surprise” or not so “surprise” economic recession.
It is rather amazing to watch Washington’s Economic Establishment (WEE) demand and demanding that China push its currency higher in currency valuations levels so that America could edge its own dollar currency lower and thus embezzle from China, so to speak. By increasing the exchange level of its Yuan currency China would be in effect cutting its own throat. First of all China’s holding of U.S. paper - its dollar reserves would be more than significantly devalued. Fire sale prices on dollars so to speak. The biggest concern of the Chinese government is to keep the economic ball rolling , and as well for economic / political reason to ensure high employment and low unemployment levels. A rising Chinese currency valuation would increase the price of Chinese export products to its main customer - the United Sates. Although it is doubtful at this point of globalization of commerce and manufacturing that American producers would be able to compete still with the prices of Chinese goods - the Chinese would not be safe. Over the longer short range terms there are no shortage of other similar Asian manufacturing countries , that due to their volume of sales to the United States would not be at the same economic / financial pressures to increase their currencies at this time vis a vis the U.S. dollar. China could well feel competitive market pressure for its goods not from the industrialized worlds and market of America , North America and Europe but rather from other producers in Asia. It is also true that many of the not so influential and well placed scions of the Chinese commercial and manufacturing sectors have considerable influence and personal involvement with the leading Chinese political and financial decision makers. An increase in the value of the Yuan versus the U.S. dollar would not be to their favor or liking as well.
Indeed things have gotten so grim for the U.S. dollar that companies in India are beginning to outsource some work back to America because the strong Rupee has made American labor “cheaper” - a relative bargain. When currencies turn not so honest in their true valuations the results can be startling.
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Sphere: Related ContentThe “Year of the Golden Pig in China” heralded an increase in gold demand. January 2007 the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported that the gold volume alone rose 73% over previous years sales levels. The “Year of the Pig” is a relatively rare occurence on the Chinese calendar the year of “the Golden Pig” is very very rare on the complex schema of the Chinese calendar. This is the first one in over 600 years or perhaps 60 years depending on the astrological expert consulted. It stands to reason that during “The Year of the Golden Pig” that not only will the Chinese be buying gold , but that they will buying an inordinately greater amount of it. A fair amount of Chinese will be buying precious gold metal - either as the precious metal itself or in forms such as gold jewellery - all to either celebrate , invest or a mixture of both. A Golden Pig Year is believed , in the Asian and Chinese cultures to be one of very good fortune and luck.
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